GOP GAINS - AT 7:39 P.M. ET:  Dan Balz of the Washington Post, one of the best political reporters around, analyzes recent poll data pointing to a trend toward Republicans, but there are serious caveats:

Are Republicans at a low ebb or making a comeback?

The question is prompted by the new release from the Gallup organization, which showed that the gap in party identification is now the smallest it has been since 2005. Democrats are still in the lead, but not by the double-digit margins they often enjoyed the past two years.

The report was the second in a month from Gallup to suggest that, eight months into the Obama administration, Democrats are losing favor with at least a portion of the electorate. Republicans are cheering the findings as a sign of a potentially important change in the political landscape. Democratic strategists offer cautionary notes about what is actually happening.

The key change, Balz points out, is not among Democrats and Republicans, but among independents, whom each party needs to be victorious:

As Gallup put it, "There has been no apparent increase in the percentage of Americans who identify as Republicans on the initial party-preference question."

What's behind the narrowing of the gap? The whole shift has come among people who do not initially identify with one of the two major parties. Some are stubbornly independent, but many of these people lean toward one party or another. Over the past few years, more of these leaners have tilted toward the Democrats than toward the Republicans. Not today.

And...

In the first three months of this year, Gallup found that 17 percent of all adults were independents who leaned toward the Democrats, and 11 percent independents who leaned toward the Republicans. Since then, however, Democrats have lost ground with independents and Republicans have gained ground. Gallup's third quarter data showed that 15 percent of adults were Republican-leaning independents, and 13 percent Democratic-leaning independents.

The frustration is that Republicans cannot and do not increase their own numbers.  The party is simply not attractive to most Americans.  It must get rid of its "Dr. No" image, propose imaginative solutions to real problems, and show at least a decent respect for the fact that not everyone in America is a white male.  Those images of Republican leaders at press conferences are devastating.  They may be fine fellows, but they all look alike. 

The party must also develop and promote major figures outside the congressional leadership.  The 2012 presidential campaign will start in 201l, and that's only two years away.  Indeed, Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota announced his PAC just today.  And Sarah's book comes out next month.

Balz concludes:

The Republicans are still in trouble and more evidence is needed to draw real conclusions about the balance of power between the two parties. But if Obama's policies are causing independents, who were critical to Democratic successes in 2006 and 2008, to look more favorably toward the Republican Party, that should be cause for concern at Democratic Party headquarters. 

Republicans, take note.

October 1, 2009